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Hydrodynamics and the Economic Imperative of Transboundary Water Cooperation in South Asia
Nusrat Yaqoob*1, Hasrat Arjjumend2
1Department of Economics, University of Karachi, Karachi, Pakistan.
Email: nusratbaloch0301@gmail.com | ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2985-5769
2The Grassroots Institute, 548 Jean Talon Ouest, Montreal, QC, H3N 1R5 Canada.
Email: president@grassrootsinstitute.net | ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4419-2791
*Corresponding author
Journal of Policy & Governance, 06(01) (June 2026), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.33002/jpg060101
Received: 16 September 2025
Published: 27 June 2026
Reviewed: 14 May 2026
Accepted: 19 May 2026
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No. of Paper Downloads:
Hydro-politics and hydro hegemony in South Asia are deeply intertwined with economic imperatives, in which disputes over water sharing not only escalate political tensions but also impose substantial economic costs. Rapid population growth is a primary driver of the natural resource supply-and-demand gap. This study investigates the long-run hydrodynamics of South Asia (Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka) by analyzing the interrelationships among water resources, energy policy, population growth, and the agricultural sector's physical output. For this study, the World Bank data from 1990 to 2024 were used to analyze the relationship between the strategic variables and cereal yield (kg per hectare). By using a single, pooled dataset for the region, the Pooled Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied to identify a common, long-run relationship among the variables. The dependent variable is cereal yield (kg per hectare), with independent variables including renewable freshwater resources, population growth, renewable energy consumption, and trade (% of GDP). Preliminary Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root and Bound tests confirm a statistically significant long-run cointegrating relationship. The findings reveal a nuanced, complex regional dynamic over the long run: renewable energy consumption and trade have a significant negative impact on cereal yields. Conversely, population growth demonstrates a significant positive long-run effect, highlighting demand as a key driver. A critical insight is the statistically insignificant long-run impact of renewable freshwater resources on cereal yield, suggesting a weak direct renewable internal freshwater resource impact link in the pooled data. The study concludes that the dominant long-term factor in South Asia's hydro-dynamic landscape is the economic imperative to meet the growing population's food needs, which may come at the expense of other policy goals such as trade liberalization and renewable energy expansion. The findings offer important policy implications for relevant stakeholders seeking to enhance regional cooperation within nations. In conclusion, it highlights the need to increase investment on advance hydrological modeling in reference to regional fresh water resource mapping and availability. Besides that, it significantly proves the importance of virtual water trade foot prints concerning to regional economic growth.
Keywords: ARDL; Hydro-Politics; South Asia; IWRM; Transboundary Water Governance; Water-Energy-Food Nexus
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Yaqoob, N., Arjjumend, H. Hydrodynamics and the Economic Imperative of Transboundary Water Cooperation in South Asia. Journal of Policy & Governance, 2026, 06 (01), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.33002/jpg060101
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Yaqoob, Nusrat and Hasrat Arjjumend. 2026. “Hydrodynamics and the Economic Imperative of Transboundary Water Cooperation in South Asia”. Journal of Policy & Governance, 06 (01): 1-24. https://doi.org/10.33002/jpg060101
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